Understanding protest in South Africa

Barry Bearak had an article on protests in South Africa in yesterday’s New York Times that fits well with my recent post on why people protest.

Bearak makes clear that it is difficult to attribute the protests to poor governance:

Oddly enough, the protests can be seen as a measure of progress as well as frustration. Since the arrival of democracy 15 years ago, the percentages of households with access to piped water, a flush toilet or a connection to the power grid have notably increased…The places most ripe for unrest are neither the poorest communities nor those with the longest backlog in setting up services. Most commonly, the protests are rooted in informal settlements that have sprung up near urban areas, where the poor who do not receive government services rub up against the poor who do.

Rather, the article confirms three of the big points I made in the post.  One, protests result from a small group of people who have the ability and incentive to mobilize a population.  Two, the subject of protests is likely to be the concerns of the leaders who organize them, regardless of whether they are a broad social concern.  Three, protest is perhaps more common in South Africa than most other democracies because organizers have widespread access to strategies that worked well in the past.

The Siyathemba protests began with a meeting of disgruntled young people, some of them members of political youth groups, others players on sports teams. They compiled a list of their many grievances…The list of grievances was left at the municipal town hall…After a mass mobilization on a Sunday, protestors took to the streets…“People knew how to act from the days of the liberation struggle,” said Mr. Maya, the protest leader.

President Jacob Zuma’s strategy of dealing with the protests by blaming elected local officials (as the article implies) seems likely to fail even if it boosts his popularity in the short-run.  Since elected local officials are overwhelmingly members of the Zuma’s African National Congress (ANC), sooner or later holding them responsible for these problems will no longer be credible.