A do-over in Afghanistan?

Three of my fellow election observers in Afghanistan, William Maley, Marvin Weinbaum, and Rani Mullen have posted an article about Afghanistan’s election crisis on Foreign Policy’s website that reaches a conclusion I find troubling:

A second round of elections before the end of October offers the best way to demonstrate that Afghans can still have a free choice and, with better voting procedures and international supervision, a more honest outcome. Even if Karzai ultimately wins, it is important to demonstrate that the international community is united in its determination to back a democratic process…

Below is an excerpt of an email I sent to Rani, expressing a number concerns:

Democracy inaction?

Do you really believe that Afghanistan can hold an election in the near future that will be more credible than the last one?  It seems to me that all of the signs are pointing to a deteriorating situation since the election, not an improving one.  Is the government capable of holding an election?  How can we ensure there will be less fraud and better security than the previous one?  What if voter turnout is even lower than the first?  Believing that ISAF and the Government of Afghanistan will be really serious for the do-over election doesn’t seem sufficient.  How can we be certain of this?  Were they not serious the first time?  Even if they are more serious, the situation may be out of their control. Don’t we need to be honest about this as well?  Finally, if we call for a do-over, doesn’t this suggest that we want a new election because we didn’t like the result we got the first time?  We have a history of this kind of behavior (e.g., Palestine 2006). Seems like a big risk to me.

Let’s see what she says.