COIN catch-22

Gregg Carlstrom at The Majlis points to a central contradiction in McChrystal’s counter-insurgency plan for Afghanistan:

McChrystal’s review calls for a strategy of population-centric counterinsurgency, which requires the U.S. to invest billions in Afghanistan. So Karzai knows the U.S. won’t turn off the aid spigot…It’s a catch-22. The U.S. needs a responsible Karzai government to implement a COIN strategy. But it can’t coerce Karzai to act responsibly without undermining that same strategy.

Aid can only give a government an incentive to govern well if there is credible commitment to withdraw it.  Since one of the core components of the COIN strategy McChrystal outlines is a commitment to stay in Afghanistan for the long-term (i.e., not withdraw the aid), the strategy reduces incentive to govern well.