Karzai’s catch-22

Dr. Abdullah Abduallah announced today that he is withdrawing from the second round of Afghanistan’s disputed presidential election.  His main stated reason was that he had no reason to believe that the second round would be any more credible than the first (a belief that has a lot of support).  Karzai and his supporters want the election to go forward because they feel a decent turnout could bring Karzai much-needed legitimacy. Alternatively, the US and its foreign allies would prefer to skip the second round and declare Karzai the winner, due to fears of violence on election day.

Interestingly, Abdullah’s decision to withdraw puts Karzai in a tricky position.  On the one hand, if the government holds the second round and voter turnout is very low, there are a large number of protest votes and/or there is a lot of violence, Karzai’s already shredded legitimacy will sink even further.  On the other hand, canceling the second round could suggest that Karzai believes he can’t win a credible victory, even if he is the only candidate on the ballot.  This would also damage Karzai’s legitimacy.  In retrospect, Abdullah may have made a very shrewd decision.