Protests in Iran

I am not an expert on Iran, so have refrained from commenting on the ongoing political crisis in the country. I decided to comment on yesterday’s protests because the message of the protestors was that President Obama either stands with the pro-democracy protestors or with the autocratic and increasingly repressive regime.  The Christian Science Monitor’s editorial board nicely frames Obama’s dilemma:

Antigovernment protests erupted again in Iran on Wednesday. Unlike previous marches against the rigged June 12 elections, this one was focused as much on President Obama as it was on the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei…

Mr. Obama has been cautious about openly siding with the pro-democracy forces, even to the point of defunding many US groups that defend human rights in Iran. For him to boldly champion the reformers might make it easier for the iron-fisted Islamic Republic to accuse them of being American agents.

But that stance is getting harder to defend as Obama falters in his strategy to engage Iran on its nuclear program…

Even if a deal is reached, the regime’s past secrecy and tendency to flip-flop does not bode well that it will keep it.

What’s more, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose legitimacy is much in doubt after the flawed election, may be simply playing for time and using the talks with the West to gain an upper hand in Iran’s political power struggles.

He can always crack down hard on protests and then give an incentive to the West not to complain about it by appearing to cooperate – for a while – on the nuclear talks. This dynamic could go on for a long, long time unless Obama decides to make human rights and democracy more important to the American strategy toward Iran.

I agree whole-heartedly with their conclusion.  It was easy to avoid supporting the pro-democracy forces when the administration could make the plausible (if self-serving) claim that aiding the protestors would open them to charges of being US agents.  Now that they are openly calling for US support, the Obama administration possibly faces the scenario of failing to assist pro-democracy forces who want our help because it would complicate negotiations with a ruthless, duplicitous, and increasingly weak dictatorship.  It’s time to come to the of aid pro-democracy forces in Iran.

Michael Allen at Democracy Digest has more, and Nazenin Ansari and Jonathan Paris have an op-ed in the New York Times.