Obama’s job approval ratings

Since coming to office, President Obama’s job approval rating has fallen by about 2% per month, as the chart below from pollster.com makes clear.

There are two reasons to think Obama’s job approval ratings have hit a temporary bottom.  First, since August, Obama’s job approval/disapproval ratings closely match party identification. According to the latest Pew Survey data, 48% of Americans consider themselves Democrats, 39% identify as Republicans, and 13% did not know or refused to answer. These results strongly match his current job approval ratings: 51% approve and 44% disapprove.  Second, if consensus economic forecasts are correct, the unemployment rate has probably reached its height.  The correlation between Obama’s job approval rating and the unemployment rate is quite high, about -0.77 (although we only have ten data points).  Thus, if the forecasts about unemployment are correct and assuming democrats continue to support him, barring any unforeseen major changes, it is likely that Obama’s job approval rating is close to its floor.