Grim political calculus on Afghanistan

President Obama is set to announce his new Afghanistan strategy on Tuesday and all indications are that he is going to ask for an increase in the number of troops. He is going to have a tough time selling his strategy. Obama’s overall public opinion rating is 49% approval to 47% disapproval. Not surprising, support breaks sharply along partisan lines with 82% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans approving of Obama’s performance, respectively. Support for the war in Afghanistan shows a similar split, with 47% of the country in favor of increasing the number of troops and 48% supporting a reduction in the number of troops or no change. 72% of Republicans are in favor of increasing the number of troops while only 29% of Democrats are in favor of this.  More troubling, 57% of Democrats would like to see a reduction in the number of troops. To add to this misery of political calculus, two-thirds of the country thinks the war is going badly.

By asking for more troops, Obama is taking two huge political risks. One, he risks alienating his strongest base of support, Democrats as they overwhelmingly favor a reduction in the number troops. Two, the group that most strongly supports the war, Republicans, has almost zero confidence in Obama. Thus, it is far from clear that general support for the war among Republicans will translate into actual support for Obama’s policy. And if the recent behavior of the Republicans in Congress and the Tea Party protests are any guide, Obama will probably not be able to rely on them for support. Good luck, Mr. President.