Pessimistic prognosis on Sudan:

President Omar al Bashir’s government has failed to pass key democratic reforms promised by the Agreement, and without these reforms, there is no way the results of the elections will be accepted and offer a milestone for the peace process.

On the contrary, fraudulent elections engineered to strengthen Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP), close the doors to political negotiations in Darfur and undermine the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) both in the South and in national institutions.

A sham poll would most likely lead to a new escalation of violence in Darfur and compromise the holding of the referendum. And if the referendum does not go ahead on schedule, the South will probably declare unilateral independence, plunging. Sudan back into civil war.

Election observers from the Carter Center are concerned.  I guess they should be concerned, but it seems to me that they are neglecting the nature of the problem.  The BBC has a story today about how the country is going off the rails, focusing on one town in the south, Malakal.  The story quotes Dr. Gabriel Gatwech, one of the town’s residents.  According to Gatwech, “Northern and Southern Sudanese cannot live peacefully together. There is a total lack of trust.”  This seems to me to get closer to the problem and holding elections under these conditions is a terrible idea.  Upton Sinclair once said “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.”  If your job is to run elections in Sudan, I suspect it’s difficult to understand how bad of an idea it is to hold them under these conditions.