China in Copenhagen

In a recent post, I wrote that China’s lack of involvement in global governance is because the government’s main concern domestic economic growth. China’s foreign policy is simply its execution of this policy outside its borders, I argued. I think I get partial-credit for a correct prediction, although it was not on my mind when I wrote the post. The consensus is that the failure of the Copenhagen climate summit to come up with any serious policy to deal with climate change was in large measure due to Obama’s poor negotiating skills. Mark Lynas writing in the (UK) Guardian says that this is not true:

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful “deal” so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

And why was the Chinese government so intent on wrecking the negotiations?  According to Lynas:

China’s growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal…Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.

So I get partial credit, but in a way that bolsters my argument. True, China did play a major role in these negotiations, contrary to what I wrote in the post. But the role it played was to make global cooperation more difficult because the Chinese government understands that combating climate change is bad domestic politics. This is not good news.