Sudan’s election is going off the rails

The SPLM and all other opposition parties are threatening to boycott Sudan’s upcoming presidential election. It appears the SPLM – the largest opposition party and the party that has wide-spread support in the south – has decided not to contest the presidential election in return for guarantees that President Bashir will hold the referendum on independence for southern Sudan on time next January. The best intelligence I have been able to gather from people working on Sudan for the US government is that the smaller opposition parties are boycotting the election to undermine the deal. The smaller opposition parties are annoyed because the SPLM was the leader of the opposition and feel that the SPLM stabbed them in the back by agreeing to drop out of the presidential race. By forcing Bashir to stand unopposed, these parties can make it very tough for the international community to say the election was anything close to credible, thus making Bashir look bad and threatening the referendum which is to occur after the election.

The US Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gratian, is in Sudan attempting to “salvage the country’s troubled election process.” However, it’s not clear what he can do as these parties at the moment have little to gain by legitimizing an election that falls far, far short of anything approaching free and fair.

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst is a good rule of thumb. It seems the USG spent a lot of time focusing on the former and far less on the latter.