Afghanistan update…

Wishful thinking isn’t enough edition:

The operation in Marjah is supposed to be the first blow in a decisive campaign to oust the Taliban from their spiritual homeland in adjacent Kandahar province, one that McChrystal had hoped would bring security and stability to Marjah and begin to convey an “irreversible sense of momentum” in the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan.

Instead…President Barack Obama’s plan to begin pulling American troops out of Afghanistan in July 2011 is colliding with the realities of the war.

There aren’t enough U.S. and Afghan forces to provide the security that’s needed to win the loyalty of wary locals. The Taliban have beheaded Afghans who cooperate with foreigners in a creeping intimidation campaign. The Afghan government hasn’t dispatched enough local administrators or trained police to establish credible governance…

Progress in Marjah has been slow…in part because no one who planned the operation realized how hard it would be to convince residents that they could trust representatives of an Afghan government that had sent them corrupt police and inept leaders before they turned to the Taliban.

So what do we learn from this article? We learn that Marjah was supposed to deliver a strong blow to the Taliban in the area, but it has failed to do that and McChrystal is frustrated as a result. Why did the operation not succeed as much as he hoped:

• Not enough troops.
• Taliban kills people who cooperate with the US and Afghan governments.
• Not enough police or civil servants.
• People don’t trust the Afghan government because it sent corrupt police and incompetent civil servants in the past.

As usual, Michael Cohen gets it right:

The notion that the challenges we’ve seen in Marjah were unexpected is utterly ludicrous. And if its true, it suggests a lack of military planning that is downright scandalous. The problems we are seeing today in Marjah were completely predictable…For anyone to plead ignorance three months later is a good indication of how divorced from reality this entire mission has become.

Yup.