Afghanistan Election Watch: Photos and Final Thoughts

Talking to a group of Kuchi about the Wolesi Jirga elections

Going to National Democratic Institute’s “Preliminary Observations and Analysis of Afghanistan’s Parliamentary Elections” event last Friday helped me reflect on my own experiences as an election observer there. For example, I couldn’t help but agree with Peter Manikas, Director of NDI’s Asia programs, when he stated that, “This was really 34 elections.” Weeks after the election I’m still learning and reading about things that allegedly happened in places like Wardak and Ghor that seem to contrast sharply with what our teams saw in Panjshir.

As for broad trends, Mr. Manikas spoke of Afghanistan having almost two distinct electoral systems: one in the areas of instability, and another in the more stable areas. While fraud and violence troubled the former, he maintained that in the latter elections looked much like they did elsewhere in South Asia. I’m no South Asia expert (though I’m pretty sure Pakistan and India alike have been plagued by electoral violence at various times), but I took this to mean that the elections in those areas appear to have been executed to a reasonable standard.

But what to make of all the complaints that are pouring in? As the panel noted, during last year’s presidential and provincial races the Electoral Complaints Commission received 2300 formal complaints; this year there have already been over 3500. But numbers without context don’t tell much of a story. For one thing, the way the SNTV electoral system works in Afghanistan – particularly in districts with many seats allocated for them in parliament – creates a lot of losing candidates. And as Mr. Manikas pointed out, a mass of angry losers with incentives to yell fraud to hungry news cameras may have generated much of the negative media coverage of the elections.

My own experience interacting with the media suggested to me that, from the outset, they wanted to focus on fraud and challenges and generally put a negative spin on things. But they seemed more interested in looking for donkeys carrying ballot boxes up mountains than in interviewing candidates. The candidates, though – if our interviews with them are any indicator – would have been happy to talk about their misgivings or even allegations of fraud quite candidly.

Campaign posters dot Panjshir's rugged roadway

So complaints and negative press may have been easy to predict for these elections. But Scott Worden – a former member of Afghanistan’s ECC – pointed out on the panel that a sizable amount of fraud was anticipated, too. (With previous elections being so problematic, a little expectation management was surely in order) Mr. Worden went on to maintain that the the real story of these elections is not the fraud per se, but how the fraud gets dealt with.

This is particularly critical in areas such as Ghazni (a large, multiethnic central province) in which alleged fraud and other irregularities – or even the closing of polling stations, as I touched on earlier – might be perceived as biased against one ethnic group, political group, clan, etc. If such cases are not settled satisfactorily, the consequences could range from voter disillusionment to violence.

And so my final thought on this experience is that election day was truly just the beginning. With preliminary results for all 34 provinces due to be announced on 8OCT (at the earliest), and with thousands of complaints for the Provincial- and Kabul-level complaints commissions to adjudicate, this will be clearly be as critical a time in the election cycle as any. I would have liked to stay in Panjshir longer to follow up with some of the officials, candidates, and everyday people we met to see how they perceive the process and its final results. Because ultimately, as Mr. Worden pointed out, it is the Afghans who must tell us if the results make sense in their province…and if they will accept them.

Checking newly-arrived elections materials in Dara, Panjshir Province