What to expect when you’re expecting…an election in Haiti

Today is the much-anticipated Presidential election in Haiti. Previously postponed immediately after January’s earthquake, this election is fraught with expectations, anticipation, and pressure to deliver a leader who will arguably make or break Haiti’s recovery.

I have a piece up at The Will and the Wallet on the election’s significance and relevance to U.S. foreign aid, but I just want to take second to make a few totally obvious predictions:

• the lack of comprehensive reissuing of Haiti’s national ID cards (required to vote) will creative countless problems and reports of identity fraud
• reports of fraud, vote-rigging, and general corruption will inevitably run rampant
• violence is likely to erupt in crowded, urban areas such as the capitol city of Port-au-Prince
• between overall voter apathy, limited voter education, and the recent cholera outbreak, total voter turnout will be extremely low

This may be one of the most highly-anticipated elections ever–putting a hell of a lot of pressure on a poor island nation that has held fewer than five ostensibly democratic elections in its history.

Moreover, whoever wins the election will essentially be rebuilding its government from the ground up. S/he will also be responsible for building up Haiti’s nonexistent absorptive capacity for handling the influx of aid money that is slowly materializing.

My concern is that the international community will be quick to criticize and slow to support, which is the last thing that Haiti needs right now. Problems are inevitable, that’s a given. The international community, however, could make a huge difference by offering electoral support in the form of specialists to adjudicate disputes and strengthen the rule of law before the run-off election between the final two candidates scheduled for January 16, 2011.

I’m not naively optimistic here–it’s going to be a mess. But I am cautiously hopeful that with the right kind of support from the international community, Haiti can turn this election into the catalyst it needs to move its recovery process forward.

Image courtesy of Life.com.