Regime Change in a Sea of Political Predicitions
Today’s resignation by President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, is one more in a series of events these last few weeks certain to work their way into history texts. From the protests and uprisings in Tunisia and across the region to the formation of a new state in Africa, I suspect I’ll be reading about a good deal of these events for years to come. The recent changes promise to influence and change economic, political and strategic relationships around the world, though it remains to be seen just how that influence will play out.
Earlier this week there were rumors of Mubarak’s coming resignation, and last evening I came rather close to scribbling up some delightfully clever post on the regime’s end. In our lust for instant news plenty including the President got a bit ahead of themselves in reporting on the regime’s conclusion. Fortunately in my ever-pessimistic world view I hesitated, and was hardly shocked at the news he basically had no intention of leaving. That being said I also wasn’t terribly surprised to read today’s news on the subject, in many ways Mubarak’s resignation seemed an eventuality, given the unrelenting nature of recent protests. However predictable or necessary Mubarak’s resignation may have been, I am quite pleased with the recent developments. Contrary to all reason political figures seem regularly unwilling to stand aside when the time comes and I suppose Mubarak could have bull-headedly stuck it out a bit longer.
The immediate future should prove an interesting time in news media, as political figures, pundits and experts on Egypt scramble from one news show to another predicting the utopian or nightmarish future of Egypt with all the grace of Miss Cleo. Plenty have already begun setting the stage for Egypt’s political change, and those of the broader region in these past weeks as nothing but a parallel to Iran’s revolution of ‘79. If nothing else it should prove interesting to look back on, as political thinkers throw out a sea of possibilities on the nation’s future someone is bound to be right after all. Many worthwhile questions are likely to be asked in news media in the next few weeks. Among the blabber it’d be useful to note any suggestions on just what changes are required in Egypt’s political system beyond broad democratic approaches to governance in effort to ensure a free and stable state.