Fidel strikes again

Newsrooms, particularly in Latin America, were flooded this past week with rumors of a grave deterioration of Fidel Castro’s health, prompting journalists to update those old obituaries that have been accumulating dust for the best part of the last decade.

Rumors about the death of the ailing Castro, 85, arise all the time. But given the credibility of the current gossipers _ including the venezuelan reporter Nelson Bocaranda, one of the first to write that Hugo Chávez had cancer _ the “news” were greeted with more concern this time. The american media didn’t to pay much attention to the story. But I saw experts here fastening their seat belts and waiting for a huge amount of requests to analyze yet again the post-Fidel era. A couple of them told me that the rumor was strong in Havana as well, although cubans would probably be the last ones to know for sure.

Even if the claim probably is false, the considerations about it are timely. The gradual economic and (more limited) political reforms that have been under way in Cuba bring new sides to old questions about the survival of the system without the presence of the leader, even though the transition has been fairly smooth since Raul Castro took his place. Have recent moves to open more space for new generations within the communist party been enough to maintain fidelity, or did it foster ambition? Is the admission of frustration by the leaders with the pace of reform generating impatience or sympathy? Will the agricultural reform be accelerated? How will those factors play when outside pressure mounts, catalyzed by the death of Fidel?

Perhaps most interesting, though, were old-fashioned reactions to the rumors that came from some circles 90 miles north of the island. This is how a third generation cuban-american expressed his sadness to me: “My family will be relieved. But I do not want to see a McDonald’s on every corner of Havana”. And markets apparently agreed with the idea of rapid change to come. Funds that have been waiting to profit from a resumption of US trade with Cuba already experienced a surge due to the latest rumor, some companies up to 25%.

Do people still think it would be that easy? Fidel passes away, and puff – overnight we have foreign companies distributing communications services around. I doubt even hard-line lobbists believe so.

In any case, Fidel himself must find it amusing that, five years after he fell ill, we are still fretting about what will happen when he is gone for real. That is, if he ever does. Other octogenarian leaders defy that notion. Just ask Robert Mugabe, 87, still exercising every morning.