The Cain Doctrine and Pakistan
If a question about Libya “got all this stuff twirling around” in Herman Cain’s head (watch it here), I would love to see what happens when he talks seriously about Pakistan.
That is one country that seems to get things twirling around everybody’s head. In the “Washington Post” today there was an illustrative story: on October 25th, American soldiers fighting in Afghanistan found themselves under fire near the border with Pakistan, and it seemed to be coming from around a Pakistani military check point. They thought it was probably a group or Pakistani soldiers providing “cover for insurgents maneuvering nearby”.
This is speculation, but it was the first thing that crossed their minds. The Post’s conclusion was nothing new: “The longer the Afghanistan war drags on, the more suspicion mounts that Pakistan’s security forces provide a wide range of support for the Taliban and its allies (…) and Afghan and American relations continue to deteriorate”.
How much of a relationship is left to deteriorate? This has been stated and written many, many times. And still Pakistan looks like an abusive husband who the US cannot divorce.
In trying to address the question of “what to do with Pakistan”, the latest “Atlantic” argues that the at root of the problem is Islamabad’s belief that the US wants to control Pakistan’s nuclear material. They are probably right. But in their efforts to protect themselves and hide the nukes from the US, “Pakistan makes its nuclear weapons more vulnerable to theft by jihadists”. Of course, that creates a vicious cycle: the more concerned Washington is with insurgents in Pakistan, the more worried it will be about the nukes, and the more Pakistan will have to work to keep the Americans at bay.
Basically that is why the divorce is impossible: “In the words of one expert, [Pakistan] is too nuclear to fail”, says the magazine.
Herman Cain didn’t go into any of that when asked about Pakistan. Just after explaining what is being referred to the “Cain Doctrine” _ “Clarify who our friends are, clarify who our enemies are and stop giving money to our enemies” _ he said that “we don’t know” whether Pakistan is a friend or a foe to the United States. So his plan is to get that straightened out.
Not that his contenders seemed to know that much better. But hey, maybe Cain can waterboard some people to clarify it.
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Not to be too blunt about it, but Cain isn’t very well informed about his own policies, much less anyone else’s. I wouldn’t expect him to know very much about Pakistan or have anything remotely insightful to say about the US’s complicated (read dysfunctional) relationship with it.
Obviously. But he is a contender. And it is funny to watch them talk about this. Watching the situation unfold over there, on the other hand, is not so funny.
By the way, while we laugh, he is still less than one percentage point behind Romney (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html). I do not believe for a second that he has any, any chance, but still, it is almost arrogant of us to dismiss completely the fact that he is so ready to display ignorance about important issues. Dont you agree?
I agree fully. It’s very sad that many supporters of the Republican view ignorance as an attribute. Rick Perry is trying hard to dumb down the conversation today even further by proposing that Congress meet only part-time. That he views this is a selling point is sad.
I saw that. In Brazil we consider the fact that Congress basically works from tuesday to thursday a disgrace. I found it interesting that someone would actually sell a half time Congress as a necessary reform out here.
I know; I know. I am optimistic that we will hit the bottom soon, however. I don’t think the campaigns can get much more simplistic than they are.
At times I think Facebook has ruined my brain, I was seriously searching for some way to “like” the above comments. There’s definitely something to be said of Barak’s assessment of our relationship with the country, while perhaps more blunt than most thats basically the standard analysis. As for Pakistan, I suspect Cain has pretty much 0 idea about the nation as more than just one of the many “stans” with trouble. Regarding the Republican courting of ignorance, its hard for me to even comment on it… “if you don’t have anything nice to say” etc etc.
haha perhaps we should add that “like” button here. but then we will need a “dislike” button as well.
I dont care much about Cain, Im more interested in how things will progress with Pakistan. What happens when the US withdraw (sort of) from Afghanistan? Thoughts?
Yes. When the US withdraws from Afghanistan, there will be an even bigger mess than currently exists. Karzai will fall soon after we leave and then Afghans will begin the process of “renegotiating” their “social contract.”
Right, but what do you think will be the implications for Pakistan and their relationship with the US? or is that the bigger mess you meant?
Ugh. This is really hard to say since so much depends on how we leave Afghanistan. The big picture is that the US wouldn’t care very much about Pakistan if it didn’t have a nuclear weapon and that it’s long-term interest are forging closer relations with Pakistan’s main rival, India.
[...] the other day we entertained ourselves briefly with Herman Cain’s… er… ideas on Libya and Pakistan, I thought it was my [...]