More Years of Solitude

Kim Jong Un fiercefully looking at a screen with information on the progress of the rocket launching. (Source: kimjongunlookingatthings.tumblr.com/)

Yesterday one year ago Kim Jung Il, Supreme Leader of North Korea, died. He was succeeded by one of his sons, Kim Jung Un. At the moment of the transition, there seemed to be some very vague hope of some sort of change. What is the state of this hope today?

Some months ago there was a post in this blog which also dealt with North Korea. At that time, the topic was also the probability of change; in such occasion, it was boosted by rare second reunion in a year of the Supreme People’s Assembly. It was expected that, among other things, the very necessary agricultural reforms would be agreed upon. Instead, some seemingly innocuous changes in the education law were the major outcome of the meeting.

Another event recently drew international attention to North Korea: the launching last week of a rocket which, unlike other four previous attempts, succeeded in completing its planned trajectory and, officially, put a satellite in orbit. International reaction was of condemnation: the launch was interpreted as the first step towards developing missile launching capacity.

It is tempting to speculate what North Korea might was actually trying to achieve with this launching. Among the options, not mutually exclusive, are: showing the world that they are a state with the sufficient resources as to put an object in space, showing its citizens that they are a modern nation with a nascent space industry, and that neighboring countries must realize that they are on their way to match them in technological development. In all those alternatives the idea that North Korea has changed is implicit.

The change might come about not because North Korea is trying to reflect the image of a country interested in technology (which is one of the goals of the Kim dynasty; the central image in the national coat of arms is a power generation plant). Instead, the idea of change could point out that now North Korea has more things in common with its neighbors by pursuing high-technological goals such as launching a rocket. However, more likely than not this image will not be constructed; except China, its nearby countries have reacted negatively to the launching of the rocket. In addition, there is no guarantee that another successful launch can repeat itself; in such a case, the whole strategy of North Korea will be smashed into pieces. In any case, the only certainty in this country for the time being is that it will continue its authoritarian system for some more years, at least.