60+ dead; > 100 wounded

The caption says “Taliban score decisive points in the guerrilla war.” H/T Abu Muqawama.

Petraeus “is, quite literally, the only man for the job. He is the last man standing with the public who can credibly be called upon to not only win the war, but to do the impossible…It’s difficult to find a war in American history where so much depended on any one man.”

Readers of this blog know that I am not a fan of the war in Afghanistan. That being said, I am not on board with the increasing calls that we leave. It’s not that I think its a good idea to stay or a bad idea to leave. Rather, the answer is I don’t know what would happen and that’s a problem.

Leaving Afghanistan could lead to renewed civil war between the Pasthun (i.e., Taliban) and non-Pasthuns (an Afghan solution for certain, but likely a very bloody one). It could lead to greater meddling by other countries in the region, primarily India, Iran, and Pakistan. Either could be highly destabilizing and most certainly could have consequences for the US (e.g., increasing tension between India and Pakistan). If parts of this sound familiar, they should because some of this  happened the last time the US hastily abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets left. Perhaps the negative consequences of these scenarios don’t justify pouring more money into the country. I don’t know the answer to these questions and until we get some clarity on them, calls to leave Afghanistan strike me as irresponsible.

Don’t blame USAID alone. At least that’s what I argue at Budget Insight.

Naheed Mustafa at Registan:

There’s a general sense here that a massive PR push is afoot, to make things look as good as possible to as many people as possible. There’s a drive toward “good news” stories, which isn’t necessarily a problem except that because there are so few, they take on a disproportionate importance. And no one denies these stories are a deliberate part of the media strategy. They’ll help immensely when Afghans are left to clean up the mess after the internationals are long gone and the world can shrug it off by pointing to the good news and saying Afghanistan was doing ok when we left.

Free Range International sees some good signs.