Day 2 of Sudan’s election

More great stuff from Deborah:

At breakfast this morning, we learned that former President Jimmy Carter would be arriving at the Juba International Airport in a few minutes. We drove over to meet him and attended a private press conference, which might have been aired on BBC by now. His remarks reflected the same observations that we’d seen or heard from others- that the logistical difficulties of holding this election resulted in some irregularities. He noted that the 24 year gap since the last election meant that poll workers needed to be trained from scratch, and emphasized the Carter Center’s long term presence in the country. Though I know the Carter Center has observers in South Sudan, we haven’t run into any from that delegation. So far we’ve seen observers from the EU, Arab League, African Union, IGAD, and the Government of Japan. There are also thousands of domestic observers who have been trained by NDI and the Carter Center. Domestic observers are stationary and we’ve seen them in every polling station. Most are very professional and forthcoming with information, though sometimes I got the impression that they were unwilling to speak out on any serious irregularities.

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Nigeria at a tipping point

Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua has been incapacitated in a Saudi Arabian hospital since November. One of his aides has announced that he will officially hand over power to the country’s Vice President, Jonathan Goodluck. In a consolidated democracy, this would be no problem, but Nigeria’s democracy is fledgling, at best. The turnover may create as many problems as it will solve. Due to Nigeria’s deep ethnic and religious tensions, it has been customary to balance power between the north (mainly Muslim) and the south (mainly Christian). Handing over power to Goodluck means that the presidency will go from a northern politician to a southern one.

Today’s editorial in The Punch, Nigeria’s most popular newspaper, warns that failure to handle the situation correctly could unleash a wave of instability. Governors in the North, for example, have already announced they are against the move. It also makes the correct point that institutions don’t enforce themselves, people enforce them. Putting pressure on leaders to respect democratic institutions in times of political crisis can mean the difference between democratic consolidation and democratic collapse. Leaders in the US, the EU, the African Union, and Africa’s democracies, such as Ghana and South Africa, can play that vital role now. Nigeria is edging towards a tipping point. It will be vastly easier to put pressure on politicians now than to clean up the wreckage of a flawed turnover in power. Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is far better than the opposite.

A DG Student/U.S. Soldier’s Notes from Uganda

Last year, I started Georgetown University’s Democracy and Governance graduate program; this year, I’m in Uganda on a mission (or two). My primary mission is a military one: I’m deployed here as a civil affairs specialist with the U.S. Army Reserves. My team’s job is to assist the Ugandan army with the civil-military relations aspect of their disarmament campaign in a remote region of the country called Karamoja. As you may have guessed, it’s not your typical deployment – unlike in Iraq or Afghanistan, the U.S. military’s footprint in Africa is very small, and the only battles being fought here are in the “hearts and minds” of the African people. So you’re probably not going to hear much about this mission on the news, but as much as my time and my job permits, you’re going to hear about it here. Continue reading »

Violence follows Gabon’s flawed election

Violence erupted following the announcement that Ali Bongo, son of the late former President Omar Bongo, won last Sunday’s election in Gabon.  Omar Bongo ruled Gabon for 41 years, from 1967 until his death last June, and was the world’s longest serving president.

Most people watching the election expected that violence would occur because few believed it would be free and fair.  The main opposition candidates, Pierre Mamboundou and Mba Obame have both claimed the election was fraudulent as well.  There is widespread evidence they are correct.  First, while only 50% of Gabon’s population is over voting age, the total number of registered voters accounts for 60% of the population.  One government official even admitted that they had registered dead people.  Second, African Union election observers reported major irregularities at polling stations, including unsealed ballot boxes, security forces improperly entering polling stations, ballots that did not list all candidates, and poll workers refusing to allow registered voters to cast their ballots.

Ali Bongo has “won” the election.  Now the hard part starts.  Gabon, like the US, uses plurality rules for its presidential elections.  This means that the person who receives the most votes wins, regardless of whether that candidate obtains a majority.  According to the official results, Bongo received 42% of the vote and turnout was very low, between 30% and 40%.  This means that in the best case scenario – a free and fair election did occur – close to 60% of voters cast their ballot against Bongo.  Since evidence suggests the election was rigged in Bongo’s favor, in all likelihood the actual percent of Gabonese who support him is far, far lower.