60+ dead; > 100 wounded

Readers of this blog know that I am not a fan of the war in Afghanistan. That being said, I am not on board with the increasing calls that we leave. It’s not that I think its a good idea to stay or a bad idea to leave. Rather, the answer is I don’t know what would happen and that’s a problem.

Leaving Afghanistan could lead to renewed civil war between the Pasthun (i.e., Taliban) and non-Pasthuns (an Afghan solution for certain, but likely a very bloody one). It could lead to greater meddling by other countries in the region, primarily India, Iran, and Pakistan. Either could be highly destabilizing and most certainly could have consequences for the US (e.g., increasing tension between India and Pakistan). If parts of this sound familiar, they should because some of this  happened the last time the US hastily abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets left. Perhaps the negative consequences of these scenarios don’t justify pouring more money into the country. I don’t know the answer to these questions and until we get some clarity on them, calls to leave Afghanistan strike me as irresponsible.

James Traub:

America’s stake in the well-being of Somalia does not make Somalia’s problems any easier to cure.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen are suitable replacements for Somalia in the above phrase.

I do not think the best way to protect “the fundamental principles of Islam” is by denying people access to information.

Trying to track the relationships between the major forces in Afghanistan is making my head spin. Consider:

• ISAF is supporting Karzai’s government against the Taliban.
• Karzai wants to negotiate with the Taliban.
• Pakistan is ISAF’s partner (remember the West Point speech?).
• Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is BFF with the Quetta Shura, the Taliban supreme leadership council, headed by Mullah Omar.
• India (like Pakistan) is an ally of ISAF and the Karzai government.
• Part of the reason Pakistan supports the Taliban in Afghanistan is to get cooperation on fighting India.
• Iran, apparently, supports both Karzai and the Taliban.

How did we let ourselves get dragged into this mess?

One problem with the war in Afghanistan is that its getting increasingly difficult to determine who is on what side.

While this will probably lead to higher budgets, it also will make clear that US foreign aid is not a tool of US foreign policy, but national security. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan are the new normal.