Obama’s job approval ratings

Since coming to office, President Obama’s job approval rating has fallen by about 2% per month, as the chart below from pollster.com makes clear.

There are two reasons to think Obama’s job approval ratings have hit a temporary bottom.  First, since August, Obama’s job approval/disapproval ratings closely match party identification. According to the latest Pew Survey data, 48% of Americans consider themselves Democrats, 39% identify as Republicans, and 13% did not know or refused to answer. These results strongly match his current job approval ratings: 51% approve and 44% disapprove.  Second, if consensus economic forecasts are correct, the unemployment rate has probably reached its height.  The correlation between Obama’s job approval rating and the unemployment rate is quite high, about -0.77 (although we only have ten data points).  Thus, if the forecasts about unemployment are correct and assuming democrats continue to support him, barring any unforeseen major changes, it is likely that Obama’s job approval rating is close to its floor.

Strong support in US for international law

World Public Opinion released a poll today looking at support for international law.  The poll shows very strong support for international law in the US.  Of the 21 countries they surveyed, the US had the third highest support for following international laws (69%), behind China and Germany, respectively.  57% of respondents in the US felt that rulings in international courts are fair and impartial (10th out of 21).  Finally, 66% of respondents thought they had stronger support for consistently following international laws (5th out of 21) compared to the average person in the US.  US support for international law was well above average for all three questions.