Regime Change in a Sea of Political Predicitions

Today’s resignation by President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, is one more in a series of events these last few weeks certain to work their way into history texts.  From the protests and uprisings in Tunisia and across the region to the formation of a new state in Africa, I suspect I’ll be reading about a good deal of these events for years to come.  The recent changes promise to influence and change economic, political and strategic relationships around the world, though it remains to be seen just how that influence will play out.

Earlier this week there were rumors of Mubarak’s coming resignation, and last evening I came rather close to scribbling up some delightfully clever post on the regime’s end.   In our lust for instant news plenty including the President got a bit ahead of themselves in reporting on the regime’s conclusion.  Fortunately in my ever-pessimistic world view I hesitated, and was hardly shocked at the news he basically had no intention of leaving.  That being said I also wasn’t terribly surprised to read today’s news on the subject, in many ways Mubarak’s resignation seemed an eventuality, given the unrelenting nature of recent protests.  However predictable or necessary Mubarak’s resignation may have been, I am  quite pleased with the recent developments.  Contrary to all reason political figures seem regularly unwilling to stand aside when the time comes and I suppose Mubarak could have bull-headedly stuck it out a bit longer.

The immediate future should prove an  interesting time in news media, as political figures, pundits and experts on Egypt scramble from one news show to another predicting the utopian or nightmarish future of Egypt with all the grace of Miss Cleo.  Plenty have already begun setting the stage for Egypt’s political change, and those of the broader region in these past weeks as nothing but a parallel to Iran’s revolution of ‘79.  If nothing else it should prove interesting to look back on, as political thinkers throw out a sea of possibilities on the nation’s future someone is bound to be right after all.  Many worthwhile questions are likely to be asked in news media in the next few weeks.  Among the blabber it’d be useful to note any suggestions on just what changes are required in Egypt’s political system beyond broad democratic approaches to governance in effort to ensure a free and stable state.

CFR chief urges regime change in Iran

In a bit of a shocker, Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), says the US should actively support regime change in Iran in Newsweek.

Haass starts the article by burnishing his credentials as a foreign policy realist who supports diplomatic engagement with Iran:

I am a card-carrying realist on the grounds that ousting regimes and replacing them with something better is easier said than done. I also believe that Washington, in most cases, doesn’t have the luxury of trying…

The incoming Obama administration…expressed a willingness to talk to Iran without preconditions…The other options – using military force against Iranian nuclear facilities or living with an Iranian nuclear bomb – were judged to be tremendously unattractive. And if diplomacy failed, Obama reasoned, it would be easier to build domestic and international support for more robust sanctions. At the time, I agreed with him.

He then explains why he has changed his mind:

The nuclear talks are going nowhere. The Iranians appear intent on developing the means to produce a nuclear weapon; there is no other explanation for the secret uranium-enrichment facility discovered near the holy city of Qum…

The authorities overreached in their blatant manipulation of last June’s presidential election, and then made matters worse by brutally repressing those who protested. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has lost much of his legitimacy, as has the “elected” president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The opposition Green Movement has grown larger and stronger than many predicted.

The United States, European governments, and others should shift their Iran policy toward increasing the prospects for political change.

Helpfully, Haass outlines what policies he would like to see the Obama administration enact:

…Iran’s Revolutionary Guards should be singled out for sanctions….

New funding for the project housed at Yale University that documents human-rights abuses in Iran is warranted…Such a registry might deter some members of the Guards or the million-strong Basij militia it controls from attacking or torturing members of the opposition. And even if not, the gesture will signal to Iranians that the world is taking note of their struggle.

It is essential to bolster what people in Iran know. Outsiders can help to provide access to the Internet…The opposition also needs financial support…

Just as important as what to do is what to avoid. Congressmen and senior administration figures should avoid meeting with the regime. Any and all help for Iran’s opposition should be nonviolent. Iran’s opposition should be supported by Western governments, not led. In this vein, outsiders should refrain from articulating specific political objectives other than support for democracy and an end to violence and unlawful detention. Sanctions on Iran’s gasoline imports and refining, currently being debated in Congress, should be pursued at the United Nations so international focus does not switch from the illegality of Iran’s behavior to the legality of unilateral American sanctions.

Haass ends by taking pre-emptive action against his likely critics:

Critics will say promoting regime change will encourage Iranian authorities to tar the opposition as pawns of the West. But the regime is already doing so.

Three points on the article. First, it is very well written. Second, the policies he recommends seem quite level-headed. Target the regime leaders for sanctions, support – but not lead – the opposition, and denounce the regime. Third, since Haass is the CFR’s president, this probably represents consensus (or near consensus) within the organization. I hope the Obama administration takes his suggestions seriously.