Optimism or wishful thinking?

Like Kristof, I don’t agree that emancipating women is a very good justification for fighting a war in Afghanistan we probably can’t win. At the same time, life under the Taliban was pretty miserable for women and allowing a return to the status quo ante makes me a bit ill. Kristof is optimistic we can avoid such a fate. I hope he is correct.

The Taliban Code

The Afghan Analysts Network has a fascinating analysis of the Taleban Code’s rules of conduct for dealing with foreign civilians during a war.

On the road again

I haven’t been able to post for a few days as I have been more or less traveling non-stop since Saturday (and will continue to do so until Friday): London-Venice (where I am now)-Johannesburg (tomorrow) – Durban (Wednesday) – Lusaka (Friday). Sorry to outsource, but Free Range International has another great post on why a more aggressive rules of engagement would have a greater chance of success in Afghanistan than pop-centric coin.

The art of war

The caption says “Taliban score decisive points in the guerrilla war.” H/T Abu Muqawama.

Thinking before acting is a good idea

Readers of this blog know that I am not a fan of the war in Afghanistan. That being said, I am not on board with the increasing calls that we leave. It’s not that I think its a good idea to stay or a bad idea to leave. Rather, the answer is I don’t know what would happen and that’s a problem.

Leaving Afghanistan could lead to renewed civil war between the Pasthun (i.e., Taliban) and non-Pasthuns (an Afghan solution for certain, but likely a very bloody one). It could lead to greater meddling by other countries in the region, primarily India, Iran, and Pakistan. Either could be highly destabilizing and most certainly could have consequences for the US (e.g., increasing tension between India and Pakistan). If parts of this sound familiar, they should because some of this  happened the last time the US hastily abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets left. Perhaps the negative consequences of these scenarios don’t justify pouring more money into the country. I don’t know the answer to these questions and until we get some clarity on them, calls to leave Afghanistan strike me as irresponsible.