If Afghanistan was the basis for The Godfather

If current policy towards Afghanistan was the basis for The Godfather Part II, the US government would be convinced that the Corleone Family (aka The Taliban) is a threat to US national security and that only Fredo (aka Karzai) can take them down. Because the US government needs to show “success” in fighting the War on Organized Crime, losing Fredo isn’t an option despite the fact that he can’t take down the family and the government becomes convinced that the Mafia aren’t such bad guys after all. In the end, Michael still kills Fredo, but the US government has no success in winning the War on Organized Crime and the police turn New York City and Las Vegas over to the Corleone Family with “assurances” that they will govern more nicely this time.

I should note here that I am not convinced that defeating the Taliban is vital for US national security and am not sure we can do it in any event. Yet, no one made Obama say that the Taliban constituted such a threat. If this is the administration has changed its mind and this is its way of of quietly dropping the issue, I don’t think it will work.

Dial 119 is the new Government in a Box™

From The Wall Street Journal:

To battle Afghanistan’s endemic corruption, a thousand Afghans every day are dialing 119.

U.S. officials say traffic on the hotline, introduced in late January for civilians to report dishonest policemen, is an early sign of progress in an antigraft campaign that is also seeing a growing contingent of Western forces begin to train and monitor Afghan security personnel to introduce professionalism to the ranks.

The push comes amid growing U.S. concern that the pervasive corruption inside the Afghan police and army is threatening the war effort by sapping public confidence in the central government and leading the Afghan public to side with the insurgency.

The latest and greatest in new fangled fixes for Afghanistan. RAMP-UP, Government in a Box™, Electricity is the New Government in a Box™, and now Dial 119. First, electricity will defeat the Taliban. Next, dial 119 will end corruption. The only Government in a Box in Afghanistan is the US Government.

Afghanistan update: Ignorance is bliss edition

If you are happy not knowing about the situation in Afghanistan, stop reading here. Believe me, ignorance is bliss. As for the rest of you fools…

Continue reading »

Electricity is the new Government in a Box™

Michael Cohen ups the ante by giving an even more depressing analysis of US policy towards Afghanistan than he did yesterday. Today’s installment is the military’s new thought that electricity in Kandahar is the solution to getting the people of that city to side with the Afghan government over the Taliban (it’s unclear whether this is a complement to or a substitute for Government in a Box™). The money quote:

The top NATO commander in southern Afghanistan, British Maj. Gen. Nick Carter, said increasing power in the city will produce a ‘head-turning moment’ among residents and will lead them to rally behind the Afghan government.

Cohen is skeptical, noting a contradiction (surprise!) in US policy:

At the same time that NATO view increasing power in the city as a “head-turning moment” it is steadfastly ignoring the fact that according to the US Army’s own public opinion surveys Kandaharis are almost unanimously opposed to NATO military intervention in their city. Do NATO and US military officials truly believe that providing electricity to Kandahar will serve to outweigh the negative consequences of increased violence that comes from our presence there? How does any increased support for NATO and the Karzai government not get completely reversed if against the wishes of local Afghans we intervene military and kill more civilians?

Cohen has some stiff competition in the pessimism about Afghanistan department. I think that Martine van Bijlert at the Afghanistan Analysis Network actually beats him in this round:

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan is still based on the idea that many Afghans are “sitting on a fence” wondering which side they will support: the government or the insurgency. It was never a very good analogy, as most people are not really in a position to choose; they move with the currents, they duck when they can, and they fight when pushed too hard. But in Kandahar, listening, it seemed we are far beyond that now. There is increasingly no fence, no two sides. What remains is anger, over opportunities lost, trust betrayed and a country wrecked where it could have been alright.

I have returned from Kandahar shaken. Not because of the blasts and the warnings and the feelings of apprehension, but because of how dark the future looks when I listen to what people have to say. I fear that all the shiny plans will do very little to change that.

Come on Martine, why all the drama? Do you really believe that the Taliban can survive the onslaught of electricity and Government in a Box™?

What Afghans want

Michael Cohen at Democracy Arsenal has a great post on the flawed logic at the core of US policy in Afghanistan:

…our goal in Southern Afghanistan is not simply to defeat the Taliban, but also to protect the Afghan people and encourage them to side with the government against the insurgents…every available indication suggests that [US] military intervention in Afghanistan will not only likely fail to accomplish these goals, but may actually inflame Afghan public opinion against NATO…

If truly the population is the center of gravity in the COIN [counter-insurgency] fight . . . why are we ignoring the population?  Why are we taking steps that they almost unanimously oppose and that will likely get many of them killed?

This might work if Josh is right that “inside every Afghan is an American trying to get out.” Otherwise, I agree with Cohen, its hard to see the logic here. On the bright side, Cohen gives a shout-out to one of my favorite programs in Afghanistan, Government in a Box!