Saleh steps down in Yemen

Good news, all around.  The country was (and still could) spiral into civil war so this is welcoming news.  It’s been difficult to form a model of the different paths the region’s autocrats have in response to their countries’ protests.   The lesson here seems to be that nearly killing a president with a rocket launcher increases the odds that they will step down.  Not terribly helpful.

On Recent Protests

So now and again in my Eeyore-like philosophy of always expecting the worst, I find myself truly and pleasantly surprised.  From the start, the recent protests, uprisings and overthrow of the Tunisian government struck me as a powerful moment in history and a reminder of a more aggressive approach to government accountability.  Yet as exciting as they were, the activities in Tunisia certainly didn’t strike me as any sort of catalyst for change in the region.  The developments this week in Egypt and most recently Yemen thus left me rather speechless.

Unlike some, I certainly am not expecting a sudden surge of representative governance or for democratic rule to spring forth in the wake of these uprisings, particularly in Egypt or Yemen. On the other hand, pessimist or not, it’s hard not to be inspired by the recent activities.  Like many interested in international relations, I found myself wondering just what this means for the United States and other Western democracy building interests.  Unlike many, the best thing I can think to hope for is that Western policy-makers will take care with the situation and if possible stay out of it.

A popular rising of displeasure with authoritarian government certainly doesn’t equate a sudden desire for Western intervention.  If anything we might hope for the recent uprisings to provide a model of understanding future change in the region.

The Shadow War

The Obama administration apparently is conducting a covert war on al Qaeda:

In roughly a dozen countries – from the deserts of North Africa, to the mountains of Pakistan, to former Soviet republics crippled by ethnic and religious strife – the United States has significantly increased military and intelligence operations, pursuing the enemy [al Qaeda] using robotic drones and commando teams, paying contractors to spy and training local operatives to chase terrorists.

Perhaps I’m jaded, but nothing in this article surprised me.

The crux of the problem

James Traub:

America’s stake in the well-being of Somalia does not make Somalia’s problems any easier to cure.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen are suitable replacements for Somalia in the above phrase.

Lawless Places, Yemen Edition

Barak and I end up talking quite a bit about the misperception that states such as Somalia and Afghanistan are failed.  As Barak likes to point out, the problem isn’t that there is NO governance, but rather that it is not the Westphalian statehood model of governance we have all grown accustomed to in the US.  Here, now, almost as it was written just for us, is a blog post about similar ‘ungoverned’ areas of Yemen.  According to the authors, the correct term is ‘alternatively governed’, which I agree with, although it is close enough to late ’90s PC terminology to make me giggle.